Cheapest Indian power name on book — or restatement risk in a corporate wrapper.

• 0.74× book. RPOWER is the only listed Indian power generator trading below stated book value of ₹39.9. Adani Power earns 22.5% ROCE at 7.4× book; NTPC 10.8% ROCE at 2.1×. The headline screams deep value.
• FY25 'profit' was a foreclosure. The ₹2,948 Cr net income — first reported profit in seven years — came from a single ₹3,230 Cr 'gain on deconsolidation' booked when subsidiary VIPL's lenders enforced their share pledge in September 2024. Strip it out: a ₹183 Cr pre-tax loss.
• Same books, active forensic audit. SEBI initiated a forensic audit on 14 January 2026. The ED filed a December 2025 chargesheet naming the parent and two 100%-owned subsidiaries in a ₹68 Cr fake-bank-guarantee case. The discount to book is compensation for restatement risk, not a free lunch.

Reconstruct the equity and the real P/B is roughly 1.0× — not the 0.74× consensus is anchoring on.

Stated book of ₹39.9/share embeds a December 2024 land revaluation booked the same quarter as the VIPL gain, ~₹6,505 Cr of FY22-FY25 equity created when promoter affiliate Reliance Infrastructure swapped intra-group debt for shares, and an unprovisioned ₹1,663 Cr Samalkot parent-guarantee invocation now in LCIA arbitration. Adjust for those and tangible equity per share collapses to ₹26-30 — making the real price-to-book at ₹29.6 about 1.0×, not 0.74×. The value cushion isn't there.

First time in 11 years reported net income exceeded operating cash flow — and the cash machine shrank.

• The mechanic. On 17 September 2024 lenders to subsidiary VIPL enforced their 100% share pledge and seized the company. Ind AS 110 forced deconsolidation; the difference between zero consideration and the carrying value of net liabilities was recognised as a ₹3,230 Cr accounting gain. Reliance Power lost a subsidiary because its lenders foreclosed.
• Underlying earnings. Strip the exceptional and FY25 was a ₹183 Cr pre-tax loss. 9M FY26 underlying PAT of ₹157 Cr implies trailing ROE of about 1% on the ₹16,337 Cr equity base. Annualised underlying EPS is ~₹0.51 — at ₹29.6 the stock is on 58× underlying earnings, not the reported 43×.
• Cash didn't follow. FY25 CFO collapsed 39% to ₹1,938 Cr — the lowest in 12 years — while reported NI jumped to ₹2,948 Cr. The FY25 accrual ratio of +0.024 is the only positive reading in eleven years. Operations have always made cash; the income statement just turned into an accounting graveyard.

Active criminal prosecution, an open SEBI forensic audit, and a promoter serving a five-year market ban.

• SEBI forensic audit. Initiated 14 January 2026 examining alleged violations of the SEBI Act, SCRA, and Companies Act. The closest precedent — Reliance Home Finance / PWC-Grant Thornton, 2019-21 — ran 18 months and recommended ₹8,884 Cr of restatement.
• ED chargesheet + CFO arrest. Former CFO Ashok Pal arrested 11 October 2025 under PMLA, resigned the same day, re-arrested by Delhi EOW April 2026. The December 2025 supplementary chargesheet names the parent plus two 100%-owned subsidiaries (Reliance NU BESS, Rosa Power Supply) in a ₹68 Cr fake-bank-guarantee tender fraud. SECI has separately debarred RPOWER from solar tenders for three years.
• Promoter banned. Anil Ambani is serving a five-year SEBI market ban and ₹25 Cr fine (August 2024) over Reliance Home Finance fund diversion. He has been off the RPOWER board for 3.5 years; the promoter group still controls 24.98%, but Reliance Infrastructure (the corporate vehicle) is itself under ED asset attachment from November 2025.
• Smart money walked. 12.5 Cr non-promoter warrants lapsed in April 2026 at ₹33 strike with the stock near strike — the holders forfeited ₹103 Cr rather than commit the balance ₹309 Cr. The loudest insider signal in the file.

One coal plant on a captive mine generates almost all the cash — and is worth several multiples of the wrapper.

The cash engine. Sasan UMPP — 3,960 MW running at 90.6% PLF (versus India thermal average 69%) on its own captive Moher coal mine — sells at a fixed ₹1.20/kWh tariff under a 25-year PPA to 14 DISCOMs across seven states. There is no rail haul, no e-auction premium, no imported-coal blending tariff. Rosa (1,200 MW, regulated cost-plus to UPPCL) is the second engine. Together they are 97% of operating capacity.

Standalone value. A 3,960 MW plant at 90.6% PLF, 14 years into a 25-year PPA generating ₹3,000–4,000 Cr of annual EBITDA, would clear ₹40,000–60,000 Cr in a private auction. The entire RPOWER market cap is ₹12,217 Cr. Even a 60% governance haircut on Sasan covers the equity several times over.

The catch. Sasan is owned through a subsidiary; the listed parent gets a residual claim subordinate to lenders, contingent guarantees, and any SEBI restatement of group accounts. The PPA expires around 2039 — 13 years of contracted cash, not perpetual. Asset value is real; the wrapper is the question.

Three regulator-controlled clocks land between mid-May 2026 and the August AGM.

• Q4 FY26 results — mid-May 2026. Operating-income / interest-expense ran 1.33× → 1.56× → 1.63× through Q1-Q3 FY26. A fourth print at ≥1.5× ex-exceptional with underlying quarterly PAT above ₹150 Cr confirms the rerating; cover below 1.0× without one-offs resets the value-trap framing.
• SEBI forensic audit outcome. No published timeline. Indian regulator precedent points to 12-18 months minimum. Closure with no restatement vacates the bear's primary trigger; a recommended restatement of the FY25 deconsolidation gain or revaluation reserve crystallises the bear's ₹18 target.
• 2026 AGM auditor rotation — Aug-Sep 2026. Pathak H.D.'s five-year mandate ends. A Big-4 firm accepting cleanly with no opening-balance qualification is the single largest possible governance upgrade. The Reliance Capital precedent: PWC quit. The choice of incoming firm — and any qualifications — is the highest-quality forensic signal RPOWER will publish in the next year.